(Wilson Quarterly) (Co-author: Petro Burkovskyi) Almost 20 years ago, Sherman Garnett, the former deputy assistant secretary of state Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, listed the security measures that America had to take in Ukraine if it wanted to avoid a major regional crisis:
Yet the long-term character of Ukrainian-Russian relations is unsettled and potentially unsettling for Europe. The internal distractions that prevent Russia from exerting its power are not permanent. As they disappear, basic differences over the relations will have to resolve.… A stronger, more assertive Russia would have real levers of influence over Ukraine, especially, if the latter had not used its “breathing space” for sweeping political and economic reforms. (Sherman Garnett, Keystone in the Arch: Ukraine in the Emerging Security Environment of Central and Eastern Europe, 1997, p. 82)
The Obama administration, as well as its Republican predecessors, ignored early warnings of an emerging crisis in Ukrainian-Russian relations. Instead of using institutional ties and keeping their distance, American diplomats informally engaged in Ukrainian politics. As a result, before the end of Obama’s first term, Russia had the upper hand in Ukraine. The situation is getting worse, too, because America is now stuck in the role of mediating Ukraine’s squabbling political factions. It is a Sisyphean task, and is not making the region any safer. […]
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