In late November 2002, Russia’s largest oil company, Lukoil, created a flurry of speculation over its decision to withdraw from the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), a major Caspian oil consortium. Given Lukoil’s prominence in economic and political circles, much of this speculation quickly acquired a geopolitical and even Machiavellian nature. Although the complex and often conspiratorial nature of such explanations makes them inherently difficult to falsify, none of them are convincing, at least as primary reasons for Lukoil’s decision. Instead, it will be argued that the main reason for Lukoil’s move is related to the company’s broader strategic retrenchment and debt consolidation, as reflected in a number of steps it has taken elsewhere, partly in response to pressures of private rating and investment agencies. Contrary to various rumors, Lukoil’s pullout from this arrangement has no implications for Russian geopolitics, or even for the company’s own long-term involvement in the Caspian region. […]
Memo #:
286
Series:
1
PDF:
PDF URL:
http://www.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets/docs/ponars/pm_0286.pdf
