Or just another leaf in the wind? We’ve taken note of the unusually strong signals from President Berdimuhamedov in early 2011 that Ashgabat seeks closer ties with Europe. EC President Barroso and EU Energy Commissioner Oettinger visited Turkmenistan after meeting with President Aliyev on January 14, 2011, where they signed a landmark Azeri-EU natural gas supply agreement. They continued on to Turkmenistan, where they did not ink a similar deal but said relations were "better than ever.” They proposed that the country join the WTO and Berdimuhamedov expressed support for a range of EU-Turkmen cooperative activities. PONARS Eurasia member Sean Roberts said: “I would not want to suggest that these meetings reflect an ongoing beneficial relationship. That being said, I also would disagree that they will not bear any fruit. I see the true significance of these discussions as being related to Berdymukhamedov's changing position internationally. His predecessor kept Russia at a distance, but Berdymukhamedov has insteadengaged Russia, mostly relying on expanded relations with China as a counter-balance. These talks with the EU may suggest that Berdymukhamedov is seeking to replicate the "multi-vector" policies of Nazarbayev by expanding his engagement on gas to include Russia, China, and the EU. Such policies have been very beneficial to Kazakhstan, but only time will tell if Berdymukhamedov has the capacity to truly engage all three of these geo-political forces and play them off of each other as Nazarbayev has done. On another note, it is completely ridiculous for Turkmenistan to be part of the WTO when its own economy is so highly regulated by the state and its currency remains severely manipulated.” It is no secret that Europe seeks to connect to Tukmenistan’s abundent natural gas. The Eurasia Daily Monitor wrote, "Having long avoided the topic of trans-Caspian pipelines in deference to Russia, Berdimuhamedov recently started speaking in favor of such a project, and linking it with the EU-backed Nabucco project.” The Asia Times reported that the visit was significant because "it gave Turkmenistan's president a single political interlocutor on the other side of the table instead of numerous energy company chiefs.” Dr. Jan Sir at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute said, "Over the last few years, Turkmenistan has made tremendous progress to improve its bargaining position and affirm itself internationally as a major energy player in Eurasia by opening new export routes, in the first place, to China, thus effectively breaking Russia's virtual monopoly over Turkmen gas exports." (News.az) Moreover, according to Reuters, Berdymukhamedov "said he was open to the creation of opposition parties.” Another PONARS Eurasia member was sceptical, telling us: “These efforts won’t bear fruit. Berdimuhamedov has been engaging in a tentative opening to the outside world now for several years, and it never gets beyond the tentative stage. He acts for the sake of publicity at home, and not for real progress in integrating Turkmenistan with the rest of the world.” Despite Turkmenistan’s troubled history since 1991 and continued authoritarian governance, Europe is energized by the tangibility of having a more diverse energy import system. As Alexander Rahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations wrote, "Despite all risks, today we can say that Nabucco has passed from the stage of mythical conversations to the stage of realization.” (Eurasian Energy Analysis) – Alexander Schmemann, managing editor/staff contributor
