The gradual withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, announced by President Barack Obama on June 22, 2011, has made the problem of achieving a political settlement in Afghanistan more urgent than ever before. The announcement came amid ongoing insurgent/terrorist operations and counter-operations and reports of U.S. talks with senior elements of the Taliban. The current dynamic interaction between negotiations among the main Afghan factions and unabating violence—including a series of high-profile political assassinations1—has further complicated matters. All this is accompanied by growing international diplomatic and political activity within the broader region at the intersection of the Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia. While closely intertwined, the intra-Afghan and regional dimensions are often addressed separately or in the wrong order, starting with the regional angle and reducing the intra-Afghan settlement to a function of the interests of regional powers. With such an approach, one easily falls into the trap of conflicting national interests (between, for example, Pakistan and India, Iran and Pakistan, and the Gulf States and Iran). Such controversies do not prevent multilateral dialogue on Afghanistan, but they easily surpass the impact of any regional framework. […]
Memo #:
190
Series:
2
PDF:
PDF URL:
http://www.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets/docs/ponars/pepm_190.pdf
