(The Huffington Post) Western sanctions are harming the Russian economy, but that doesn't mean they will achieve anything the West wants in Ukraine. The Minsk ceasefire agreement benefits Russia much more than Ukraine, forcing Kiev to make political concessions while giving Moscow free rein on Ukraine's eastern borders and in Crimea. Russia has no incentive to break the ceasefire, with or without sanctions.
Meanwhile no one has said what Russia has to do to lift the sanctions. President Barack Obama last week urged Russia to take "the path of diplomacy and peace." But we don't know exactly where that path leads, or how anyone will determine whether Russia is on it.
We also don't know what mechanism is supposed to make Russia change its path. The most explicit statement about this was made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew at UCLA on September 17. He said, "The goal is to change the way Russian leaders are making their decisions." Well, Russian leaders are making their decisions based on what President Vladimir Putin tells them to do. So the goal appears to be to drive a wedge between Putin and his closest personal supporters (the so-called "cronies"), by demonstrating that Putin can no longer offer them financial benefits for their cooperation. […]
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