South Caucasus 7 - PONARS Eurasia

The Withdrawal of Russian Military Bases from Georgia: Not Solving Anything

In March 2005 negotiations over a long-stalled issue of Russian military bases in Georgia sharply accelerated. In the end of May, the foreign ministers of the two countries signed a…

Uzbekistan: The Risks and Responsibilities of Democracy Promotion

July 23, 2012

A disturbing question about the massacre that occurred in Uzbekistan three days after President Bush praised “people power” in Tbilisi is whether the demonstration effect of the movements that unseated…

A Year After the Color Revolutions: Preemptive Authoritarianism and Challenges for Democratization in the Former Soviet Union

In 1989, citizens across central Europe went to the streets to bring down communist dictatorships and assert their right to live in free societies. More than a decade later, people…

The United States from Russia to Georgia

The latest crisis in Russian-Georgian relations, precipitated by the arrest of four Russian officers in Georgia on suspicions of espionage, could put the United States in an awkward situation in…

Ethnic Migration: A Challenge to Russian Border Security?

Russia is one of the world’s top destinations for migrants, mainly from post-Soviet states but also increasingly from elsewhere in Asia, especially China. While precise assessments differ, the number of…

Post-Soviet Realpolitik: Russian Policy After the Color Revolutions

Russian policy toward Georgia and Ukraine after the color revolutions presents an example of a realpolitik answer to a normative policy challenge. Here we see one of the widest discursive…

The Political and Legal Parameters of Russian Decisionmaking on Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia on February 17, 2008, was in some ways an anticlimactic event. It was widely expected, as were the immediate reactions: recognition by the United…

The Russian-Georgian Crisis and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

July 23, 2012

In the early fall of 2002, two developments concerning Georgia garnered a great deal of attention. The first was the groundbreaking ceremony for the long-awaited Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which has…

Quod Licet Iovi: Preemptive Use of Military Force in Russian Foreign Policy

In August-September 2002, Russia appeared to have a short romance with the U.S. policy of preemption, which was annoucned months before and made official in the National Security Strategy issued…

Why Did Lukoil Really Pull Out of the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli Oilfield?

July 23, 2012

In late November 2002, Russia’s largest oil company, Lukoil, created a flurry of speculation over its decision to withdraw from the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), a major Caspian oil consortium. Given…

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South Caucasus