Russia’s War and Belarus’s Ravaged Sovereignty
For more than two years, Belarus has been stuck in a political crisis. Ever since the fraudulent presidential election and anti-government protests in August 2020, the root cause is that…
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Moshes
88 posts
Forever Together? Relations Between Moscow and Minsk After the Belarusian Revolution of 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The Belarusian Revolution was a stress test for Belarus-Russia relations. The domestic political crisis that followed the rigged presidential elections of 2020 weakened the Minsk regime…
Belarus Protests Have Explosive Potential for EU-Russia Relations
(Carnegie Moscow Center) Belarus has been engulfed by protests ever since the contested presidential election back in August, and whatever happens, it seems things cannot ever just go back to the…
Belarus without Lukashenko: How it became a realistic scenario
(FIIA Comment) Alexander Lukashenko’s “victory” in the election cannot bridge the gap between the president and the modern part of Belarusian society. Turbulent times may lie ahead for Belarus. This will…
The conflict in Donbas is not frozen and may soon require more attention
(Friends of Europe) The Minsk II agreement was signed in 2015 with the intention of settling the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas. Yet, it was doomed from the outset as it…
A Mixed Record: Assessing Ukraine’s Domestic Reforms Under Volodymyr Zelenskiy
(LSE) (Co-authored with Ryhor Nizhnikau) While most recent attention has been drawn to the diplomatic effort to achieve progress in the conflict resolution in Ukraine’s Donbas, which culminated in the…
The Normandy Summit on Ukraine: No Winners, No Losers, To Be Continued
(FIIA) The French-German-Russian-Ukrainian top-level encounter could not and did not deliver a prospect of resolving the conflict in Donbas, but the limits of the possible are now clearer. No certainty,…
Moshes: Political solidarity is there, but Russia clearly wanted to receive more from China
(Edgemarkets) Chinese Premier Li Keqiang kicked off a three-day visit to Moscow on Monday, where he hopes to counter the effects of the US trade war with agriculture deals. But…
All Quiet in Russian-Belarusian Relations
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) For approximately a year, from summer 2018 onwards, observers were paying close attention to tensions in relations between Russia and Belarus. A particular concern was caused…
Moshes: Any Ukrainian ruler’s room for concessions in the Russian direction is very limited
(WP) KIEV, Ukraine — Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s landslide victory in Ukraine’s presidential election has thrust a comedian and political novice into the middle of the most dangerous flashpoint between Moscow and the…