Hale: Putin’s strategy of blaming the West for hits to the economy is limited
(CNN) — While the U.S. economy surges in 2014, posting the biggest jobs numbers in 15 years, the Russian economy is tanking straight into a recession after a bludgeon of…
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Hale
90 posts
Ukraine’s Election: Hope and Concern
Looking at the exit polls and preliminary results released just after the Ukrainian parliamentary elections ended today, at least two developments stand out, one hopeful and one worrisome. First, the…
Hale, Hanson: Training Russia Specialists
(The New York Times, Op-ed Letter) The United States will surely require more trained specialists on Russia (and on Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus) in coming…
Civilizations Reframed: Towards a Theoretical Upgrade for a Stalled Paradigm
(Journal Article) Relative to their perceived importance in international and domestic politics, civilizations are radically understudied by social scientists. One possible cause is that existing research on civilizations is too…
Why Do Eurasia’s Authoritarians Stay in Power?
Why have non-democratic regimes in the post-Soviet space been so durable? Some leaders whose human rights records are regularly criticized, from Belarus in the west to Kazakhstan in the east,…
Danger Looms in 2014 Afghan Presidential Election
Candidates are now coming forward for Afghanistan’s presidential election next year. Incumbent Hamid Karzai is by all accounts trying hard to retain control over the process. While Karzai is stepping…
Regime Change Cascades: What We Have Learned from the 1848 Revolutions to the 2011 Arab Uprisings
(Journal Article) Abstract: Works on the 1848 revolutions, 1989 collapse of European communism, 1998–2005 postcommunist color revolutions, and 2011 Arab uprisings frequently cross-reference each other, implying what is called here…
New Policy Memo: Afghanistan 2014: Ripe for Revolution?
Research on patterns of electoral revolution in post-Soviet countries strongly suggests that Afghanistan may be ripe for revolution in or before 2014, when elections are scheduled to choose President Hamid…
Afghanistan 2014: Ripe for Revolution?
Executive Summary Research on patterns of electoral revolution in post-Soviet countries strongly suggests that Afghanistan may be ripe for revolution in or before 2014, when elections are scheduled to choose…
Age Is No Friend to Dictators
Rumors that Uzbekistan’s 75-year-old president, Islam Karimov, has suffered a heart attack have recently set off speculation of a looming succession struggle in Central Asia’s most populous country. Whether or…