Prospects for Islamic Radicalism and Violent Extremism in the North Caucasus and Central Asia

The decision by leaders of the armed separatist movement in Chechnya in the late 1990s to embrace a radical Islamic agenda raised concerns that Islamic terrorist groups would seek to establish strongholds and recruit followers among the large Muslim populations in the former USSR and, specifically, the North Caucasus and Central Asia (especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan). This memo focuses on two related but distinct questions: What is the likelihood that radical Islamic sentiment will become widespread in these regions over the next several years? What is the prospect that violent Islamic extremists will use terrorism to destabilize local regimes and promote their goal of establishing an Islamic caliphate throughout the region? […]

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