(Defense News) When it comes to Russia, the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) pulls no punches. Moscow’s military, specifically its modernized nuclear forces, are featured significantly throughout the report. the attention paid to other potential nuclear adversaries, like China, does not come close to that paid to Russia.
The core of NPR’s proposed footing vis-a-vis Russia rests on an understanding of Russian nuclear doctrine as offensive, rather defensive. Noted is Russia’s monumental advantage in terms of non-strategic nuclear weapons, which the report’s authors believe Moscow would use to escalate a conflict so as to intimidate the U.S. into backing down. […]
“I don’t expect any radical changes in Russia,” says Pavel Podvig, author of the Russian Forces blog on nuclear issues. “It is certain that Russia will use this opportunity to justify its new programs, but it really doesn’t need the new NPR to do that. And it already has everything it needs.” […]
According to Podvig, “NPR got the basic Russian strategy wrong.” Rather than early use or escalate to de-escalate, Russia seeks to project uncertainty about its readiness and capabilities as a deterrent.
“From this point of view, there is not much in NPR that would affect that. Or, indeed, from any point of view,” Podvig said. “Whatever ideas Russia may have about nuclear use, I don’t see how a low-yield Trident warhead would change that.” […]
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