(Russia in Global Affairs) Europe slipped unexpectedly into a new geopolitical reality in March 2014. A major conflict is brewing between Russia and the West that until recently had been regarded merely as an extremely pessimistic scenario. International tensions have reached the point where any outcome, even a catastrophic one, cannot be completely excluded. Nevertheless, it is still possible to avoid a head-on collision between NATO and Russia. Consequently, one can assume that sooner or later the acute phase of the conflict will end, the dust will settle, and all the participants in today’s battles will have to mend relations with regard to the new reality.
In this article I will consider some basic factors that may be critical for a future pan-European settlement. At this point no one can tell how exactly it will be implemented. We must wait and see what Europe’s future political landscape will be, what the borders will look like, or what balance of power will be established within each bloc and between them. However, some basic parameters will likely remain unchanged, especially those that relate to the identity of each of the players and their niche in the global capitalist system. The system is transforming slowly but surely, yet the effects of the transformation are difficult to predict. […]
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