The Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the Rose Revolution in Georgia, and the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan have been widely interpreted as democratic breakthroughs. This largely misses the most important point. In fact, these revolutions reflect the continuity of the old system more than they reflect change. This old system, one of patronal presidentialism, is marked by regular and reasonably predictable oscillations between what appears to be autocracy and what appears to be democracy. By implication, the waves of political contestation seen in the color revolution countries are likely to peter out as the democratic space constricts anew. The main exception is Ukraine, which may indeed have made a democratic breakthrough in 2004, but ironically this is at least partly because the victory of democracy advocate Viktor Yushchenko was stripped of some of its meaning. Ukraine still risks moving back to a new autocratic phase, however, especially if constitutional reforms weakening the presidency are thwarted. […]
Memo #:
373
Series:
1
PDF:
PDF URL:
http://www.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets/docs/ponars/pm_0373.pdf
