Russia Seeks to Reenergize Its Pivot to the East
(EDM) Over the past several years, whenever Moscow entered into a difficult encounter on the Western “front,” it has typically tried to show interest in expanding ties in the Asia-Pacific. In…
Russia’s Aggressive-Repressive Policies Bring No Long-Term Gains
(EDM) Claims of “stability” and “confidence” shaped President Vladimir Putin’s answers to the carefully selected questions posed during his annual 220-minute-long live TV call-in program, which aired on April 14.…
US-Russian relations: The middle cannot hold
(Routledge) (Co-authored with J. Shapiro) The Obama administration has stated its intention to avoid a new Cold War, but it has also demonstrated little interest in addressing the core issue in…
Putin’s downfall: The coming crisis of the Russian regime
(ECFR) The current trajectory of the Russian regime is unstable and without dramatic change it will crumble within the next year, according to a leading Russia specialist. “Putin’s downfall: The…
How Putin Changed the Balance of Power Among Russia’s Elite (Op-Ed)
(Moscow Times) As is often the case in Russia, the creation of the National Guard was long anticipated, and therefore, caught everyone by surprise. The sheer scale of the restructuring has affected practically every branch of the siloviki. The Interior Ministry…
It’s Not the Economy, Stupid
The New York Times has gotten better, of late, at infographics. And they’ve gotten better at covering Russia, too. But somehow, their attempt today to combine the two was less…
Newly-Formed National Guard Cannot Dispel Putin’s Multiple Insecurities
(EDM) The recent release of the “Panama Papers,” which revealed notorious cases of hidden money flows tied to the global elite, continues to cause a political stir across the world. But…
Changing of the guard: Putin’s law enforcement reforms
(ECFR) On the evening of 5 April Vladimir Putin invited four of his powerful siloviki contacts to accompany him in announcing Russia’s biggest law enforcement reform in almost 15 years. The…
Impact of the economic crisis on Russian military modernization
The Cipher Brief asked me to write a short piece on the impact of Russia’s economic downturn on prospects for the Russian military, as part of a series on Russian military modernization.…
Nuclear Security and Arms Control Are Non-Issues for Russia
(EDM) Russia’s absence from the nuclear summit in Washington, DC, last week was entirely predictable and yet baffling. Moscow announced its non-participation last November, and Secretary of State John Kerry…
Trump’s impact on Russian-German relations?
(IPG | in German) Der russische Präsident Putin bezeichnete Trump im Dezember 2015 als "schillernden und fähigen Menschen." Donald Trump liegt im Rennen um die Nominierung des Republikanischen Kandidaten für die…
Russian planes in Syria
Recently, Michael Kofman and I published an article arguing that Russia’s claimed withdrawal from Syria is not really a withdrawal, but rather a public relations move to normalize Russian military presence in…