The short distance separating Cuba from the United States has once again become the site for growing international intrigue. Yesterday, reports that Cuba is developing a massive new oil-drilling platform with large investment from China, Spain, Norway and India has caused some concern in Washington. Cuba revealed the initial plans for this drilling expedition at a summit in Trinidad and Tobago. The drill sites are close to where the Obama administration had previously forbidden US companies from drilling, and in some cases are less than 50 miles from shore. With the Obama administration's recent overturning of the offshore drilling ban, the effects of new competition in the Gulf of Mexico remain unseen. As for the United States, the new oil rig has both domestic and international implications. One representative from Florida has proposed legislation that demands punitive charges be placed on any company that cooperates with Cuban state enterprises off the coast of Florida. The representative states that much of the information pertaining to safety regulations on the proposed platform remains to be seen, and the economic cost of another Deepwater Horizon disaster would be catastrophic for Florida. Furthermore, the economic embargo and byzantine diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba mean that cooperation in the event of a spill would be all that much more difficult. Concerns about having the most recent technology and best practices are well-warranted, as the US Department of the Interior invited several other Gulf states to a conference on best practices, but did not invite Cuba. If this Cuban drilling operation becomes a reality, it could push a re-evaluation of US-Cuban relations in a way not seen since Castro's rise to power. Cuba faces an equally multifaceted situation. During the Cold War, Cuba imported the majority of its petrochemicals from the Soviet Union. In the last years of the Soviet Union and the first year after the collapse, Cuba's access to petroleum exports was reduced by 40 percent, causing massive price fluctuations. Once this new platform becomes operational, the change to the Cuban economy will be enormous. In 2009, Cuba imported 90,000 barrels a day, while exporting some 47,000. The deep water drilling could yield between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels a day, increasing petrochemical production by 500 percent. This boon could have an interesting impact on socialism in Cuba, as the state has experienced economic turbulence in the past 3 years especially. One clear change would be the re-emergence of Cuba as a contender for the ideological foil to the United States, reclaiming the role from Chavez and Venezuela. Furthermore, it could also incentivize negotiations with the United States as domestic oil prices in the US continue to rise and politicians seek out sources of oil outside of the Persian Gulf and OPEC states. While the stakes are nowhere near as high as they were in 1962, the development of this oil platform could bring a massive influx of hard currency and direct investment to Cuba not seen since the Soviet collapse. The shifting fortunes of Cuba often interact with US domestic politics. China's aspirations as a peer competitor to the United States are clear in such a massive project so close to Florida's shores. So, once again, foreign vessels are making their way to the Gulf of Mexico and will inevitably bolster the regime in Havana. – Wilder Bullard, staff contributor
